Game projection
IND at JAX
lines updated
Value bets on this game
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Value is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Our projection
Analysis, not a pick. This is how the model sees the game.
Game context
Pick a game on this week's board to see weather, rest, and travel.
Spread & total fair chance
Spreads are set to be close to 50/50.
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Model lean
Our model: JAX by 12.4 · Market: no spread yet
Model win chance 83% vs market 80% (JAX)
Model analysis only, not a pick. Value bets use sharp market prices.
Projection breakdown
| Metric | IND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| League scoring baseline | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Offense contribution | -2.3 | +4.9 |
| Opponent defense | -1.1 | +2.5 |
| Home advantage | -0.8 | +0.8 |
| Before context | 18.2 | 30.6 |
| Weather / rest / travel | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Injury impact | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Final projection | 18.2 | 30.6 |
| Win chance | 17% | 83% |
| Fair moneyline | +479 | -479 |
What moves this projection
How each factor works
- Home field: Standard home-field edge; zero at neutral sites.
- Weather: The weather penalty applies to both teams equally, so it can cancel in the score even when the context note mentions a lower total.
- Rest: A rest gap of 3+ days gives the more-rested team one point of margin.
- Travel: Away travel of 1,500+ miles adds 0.5 to the home margin; 2,500+ adds 1. Not applied at neutral sites.
- Injuries: Position value × status likelihood, capped at 7 points per team; only the largest QB loss counts. Zero without an applied report.
- Ratings: EPA drives offense/defense, blended with a six-game preseason prior. Success rate and recent results are context only.
- Market blend: 0% model / 100% market changes bet probabilities and EV, not the projected score. Nothing guarantees a win.
Margin is from the home team’s view. Rounded values may not add exactly.
Odds & fair prices
Fair chance removes the sharp sportsbook's house cut. Value compares that chance with the actual price at your books.
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Recent form
Colts
Scored / game
24.0
Allowed / game
27.3
ATS
3–3–0
Over / Under / Push
4–2–0
Recent form
Jaguars
Scored / game
25.7
Allowed / game
17.3
ATS
3–3–0
Over / Under / Push
2–4–0
Player season stats
IND
No player stats available for this team.
JAX
No player stats available for this team.
Player stats are context only; they do not change the team score projection. Passing, targets, snaps, and confirmed lineups are not available in this feed.