Game projection
SF at ATL
Efficiency data through Week 6 · lines updated loading
Game context
- Weathern/aChecking sources…
- RestSF 6 days · ATL 7 daysChecking sources…
- Traveln/aChecking sources…
Spread outcome
SF -2.5
Our pick. An estimate, not a sure thing
Total outcome
Under
No bet, price is fair
Projection breakdown
| Metric | SF | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| League scoring baseline | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Offense contribution | +7.1 | -2.3 |
| Opponent defense | -0.0 | -2.3 |
| Home advantage | -0.8 | +0.8 |
| Before context | 28.6 | 18.6 |
| Weather / rest / travel | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Injury impact | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Final projection | 28.6 | 18.6 |
| Win chance | 78% | 22% |
| Fair moneyline | -348 | +348 |
What moves this projection
How each factor works
- Home field: Standard home-field edge; zero at neutral sites.
- Weather: The weather penalty applies to both teams equally, so it can cancel in the score even when the context note mentions a lower total.
- Rest: A rest gap of 3+ days gives the more-rested team one point of margin.
- Travel: Away travel of 1,500+ miles adds 0.5 to the home margin; 2,500+ adds 1. Not applied at neutral sites.
- Injuries: Position value × status likelihood, capped at 7 points per team; only the largest QB loss counts. Zero without an applied report.
- Ratings: EPA drives offense/defense, blended with a six-game preseason prior. Success rate and recent results are context only.
- Market blend: 30% model / 70% market changes bet probabilities and EV, not the projected score. Nothing guarantees a win.
Margin is from the home team’s view. Rounded values may not add exactly.
Odds & our pick
30% model · 70% market
Expected profit is an estimated average over many bets, not a guaranteed return.
SF -2.5
-118- Chance to win
- 57%
- Profit / $100
- +5.0
ATL +2.5
-102- Chance to win
- 43%
- Profit / $100
- -14.4
Over 49.5
-115- Chance to win
- 47%
- Profit / $100
- -11.4
Under 49.5
-105- Chance to win
- 53%
- Profit / $100
- +2.7
DK saved slate lines, not the live multi-book feed. “Model” is the model alone; picks, probabilities and EV use the blend. Missing spread / total prices assume −110.
Posted moneyline
| Metric | SF | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Saved book price | -148 | +124 |
Public betting
Loading betting splits…
DraftKings Sportsbook, all states combined. “Bets” is the share of tickets; “Money” is the share of dollars wagered. This shows where people are betting, not who will win.
Recent form
49ers
Scored / game
29.5
Allowed / game
18.3
ATS
3–2–0 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
3–2–0 (1 game without a line)
Recent form
Falcons
Scored / game
23.7
Allowed / game
25.5
ATS
2–3–0 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
4–1–0 (1 game without a line)
Player season stats
SF
No player stats available for this team.
ATL
No player stats available for this team.
Player stats are context only; they do not change the team score projection. Passing, targets, snaps, and confirmed lineups are not available in this feed.