Game projection
MIA at NYJ
Efficiency data through Week 6 · lines updated loading
Game context
- Weathern/aChecking sources…
- RestMIA 14 days · NYJ 7 daysChecking sources…
- Traveln/aChecking sources…
- NYJ on a short week: MIA +1.0
Spread outcome
NYJ -4.5
No bet, price is fair
Total outcome
Over
No bet, price is fair
Projection breakdown
| Metric | MIA | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| League scoring baseline | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Offense contribution | -5.7 | -2.2 |
| Opponent defense | -0.1 | +5.5 |
| Home advantage | -0.8 | +0.8 |
| Before context | 15.8 | 26.6 |
| Weather / rest / travel | +0.5 | -0.5 |
| Injury impact | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Final projection | 16.3 | 26.1 |
| Win chance | 23% | 77% |
| Fair moneyline | +334 | -334 |
What moves this projection
How each factor works
- Home field: Standard home-field edge; zero at neutral sites.
- Weather: The weather penalty applies to both teams equally, so it can cancel in the score even when the context note mentions a lower total.
- Rest: A rest gap of 3+ days gives the more-rested team one point of margin.
- Travel: Away travel of 1,500+ miles adds 0.5 to the home margin; 2,500+ adds 1. Not applied at neutral sites.
- Injuries: Position value × status likelihood, capped at 7 points per team; only the largest QB loss counts. Zero without an applied report.
- Ratings: EPA drives offense/defense, blended with a six-game preseason prior. Success rate and recent results are context only.
- Market blend: 30% model / 70% market changes bet probabilities and EV, not the projected score. Nothing guarantees a win.
Margin is from the home team’s view. Rounded values may not add exactly.
Odds & our pick
30% model · 70% market
Expected profit is an estimated average over many bets, not a guaranteed return.
MIA +4.5
-105- Chance to win
- 45%
- Profit / $100
- -11.6
NYJ -4.5
-115- Chance to win
- 55%
- Profit / $100
- +2.3
Over 39.5
-108- Chance to win
- 53%
- Profit / $100
- +2.7
Under 39.5
-112- Chance to win
- 47%
- Profit / $100
- -11.7
DK saved slate lines, not the live multi-book feed. “Model” is the model alone; picks, probabilities and EV use the blend. Missing spread / total prices assume −110.
Posted moneyline
| Metric | MIA | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Saved book price | +185 | -225 |
Public betting
Loading betting splits…
DraftKings Sportsbook, all states combined. “Bets” is the share of tickets; “Money” is the share of dollars wagered. This shows where people are betting, not who will win.
Recent form
Dolphins
Scored / game
14.0
Allowed / game
26.4
ATS
1–2–1 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
2–2–0 (1 game without a line)
Recent form
Jets
Scored / game
18.7
Allowed / game
20.3
ATS
3–1–1 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
2–3–0 (1 game without a line)
Player season stats
MIA
No player stats available for this team.
NYJ
No player stats available for this team.
Player stats are context only; they do not change the team score projection. Passing, targets, snaps, and confirmed lineups are not available in this feed.