Game projection
IND at MIN
Efficiency data through Week 6 · lines updated loading
Game context
- Weathern/aChecking sources…
- RestIND 7 days · MIN 14 daysChecking sources…
- Traveln/aChecking sources…
- IND on a short week: MIN +1.0
Spread outcome
MIN -6.5
Our pick. An estimate, not a sure thing
Total outcome
Under
Our pick. An estimate, not a sure thing
Projection breakdown
| Metric | IND | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| League scoring baseline | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Offense contribution | -2.3 | -2.7 |
| Opponent defense | -5.9 | +2.5 |
| Home advantage | -0.8 | +0.8 |
| Before context | 13.5 | 23.0 |
| Weather / rest / travel | -0.5 | +0.5 |
| Injury impact | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Final projection | 13.0 | 23.5 |
| Win chance | 21% | 79% |
| Fair moneyline | +370 | -370 |
What moves this projection
How each factor works
- Home field: Standard home-field edge; zero at neutral sites.
- Weather: The weather penalty applies to both teams equally, so it can cancel in the score even when the context note mentions a lower total.
- Rest: A rest gap of 3+ days gives the more-rested team one point of margin.
- Travel: Away travel of 1,500+ miles adds 0.5 to the home margin; 2,500+ adds 1. Not applied at neutral sites.
- Injuries: Position value × status likelihood, capped at 7 points per team; only the largest QB loss counts. Zero without an applied report.
- Ratings: EPA drives offense/defense, blended with a six-game preseason prior. Success rate and recent results are context only.
- Market blend: 30% model / 70% market changes bet probabilities and EV, not the projected score. Nothing guarantees a win.
Margin is from the home team’s view. Rounded values may not add exactly.
Odds & our pick
30% model · 70% market
Expected profit is an estimated average over many bets, not a guaranteed return.
IND +6.5
-112- Chance to win
- 46%
- Profit / $100
- -12.2
MIN -6.5
-108- Chance to win
- 54%
- Profit / $100
- +3.3
Over 41.5
-110- Chance to win
- 44%
- Profit / $100
- -15.7
Under 41.5
-110- Chance to win
- 56%
- Profit / $100
- +6.7
DK saved slate lines, not the live multi-book feed. “Model” is the model alone; picks, probabilities and EV use the blend. Missing spread / total prices assume −110.
Posted moneyline
| Metric | IND | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Saved book price | +230 | -285 |
Public betting
Loading betting splits…
DraftKings Sportsbook, all states combined. “Bets” is the share of tickets; “Money” is the share of dollars wagered. This shows where people are betting, not who will win.
Recent form
Colts
Scored / game
24.0
Allowed / game
27.3
ATS
3–2–0 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
3–2–0 (1 game without a line)
Recent form
Vikings
Scored / game
21.8
Allowed / game
12.8
ATS
3–1–0 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
0–4–0 (1 game without a line)
Player season stats
IND
No player stats available for this team.
MIN
No player stats available for this team.
Player stats are context only; they do not change the team score projection. Passing, targets, snaps, and confirmed lineups are not available in this feed.