Game projection
DEN at ARI
Efficiency data through Week 6 · lines updated loading
Game context
- Weathern/aChecking sources…
- RestDEN 10 days · ARI 7 daysChecking sources…
- Traveln/aChecking sources…
- ARI on a short week: DEN +1.0
Spread outcome
DEN -4.5
No bet, price is fair
Total outcome
Under
No bet, price is fair
Projection breakdown
| Metric | DEN | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| League scoring baseline | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Offense contribution | -2.0 | -2.8 |
| Opponent defense | +4.7 | -1.6 |
| Home advantage | -0.8 | +0.8 |
| Before context | 24.4 | 18.8 |
| Weather / rest / travel | +0.5 | -0.5 |
| Injury impact | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Final projection | 24.9 | 18.3 |
| Win chance | 69% | 31% |
| Fair moneyline | -222 | +222 |
What moves this projection
How each factor works
- Home field: Standard home-field edge; zero at neutral sites.
- Weather: The weather penalty applies to both teams equally, so it can cancel in the score even when the context note mentions a lower total.
- Rest: A rest gap of 3+ days gives the more-rested team one point of margin.
- Travel: Away travel of 1,500+ miles adds 0.5 to the home margin; 2,500+ adds 1. Not applied at neutral sites.
- Injuries: Position value × status likelihood, capped at 7 points per team; only the largest QB loss counts. Zero without an applied report.
- Ratings: EPA drives offense/defense, blended with a six-game preseason prior. Success rate and recent results are context only.
- Market blend: 30% model / 70% market changes bet probabilities and EV, not the projected score. Nothing guarantees a win.
Margin is from the home team’s view. Rounded values may not add exactly.
Odds & our pick
30% model · 70% market
Expected profit is an estimated average over many bets, not a guaranteed return.
DEN -4.5
-110- Chance to win
- 52%
- Profit / $100
- -1.0
ARI +4.5
-110- Chance to win
- 48%
- Profit / $100
- -8.0
Over 43.5
-112- Chance to win
- 50%
- Profit / $100
- -6.0
Under 43.5
-108- Chance to win
- 50%
- Profit / $100
- -3.0
DK saved slate lines, not the live multi-book feed. “Model” is the model alone; picks, probabilities and EV use the blend. Missing spread / total prices assume −110.
Posted moneyline
| Metric | DEN | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Saved book price | -230 | +190 |
Public betting
Loading betting splits…
DraftKings Sportsbook, all states combined. “Bets” is the share of tickets; “Money” is the share of dollars wagered. This shows where people are betting, not who will win.
Recent form
Broncos
Scored / game
19.0
Allowed / game
20.8
ATS
4–1–0 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
1–4–0 (1 game without a line)
Recent form
Cardinals
Scored / game
21.0
Allowed / game
29.7
ATS
2–3–0 (1 game without a line)
Over / Under / Push
3–2–0 (1 game without a line)
Player season stats
DEN
No player stats available for this team.
ARI
No player stats available for this team.
Player stats are context only; they do not change the team score projection. Passing, targets, snaps, and confirmed lineups are not available in this feed.